Sports Betting Strategy – Ultimate Guide

Let’s face facts: many variables are in play when you bet on sports. Most of these exist outside your control, too, so it’s important to account for them and strive to minimise losses at all times.

One way to achieve this is to create an effective sports betting strategy. However, how do you create a strategy tailored to specific sports and markets, and what are the core components underpinning the most successful methodologies?

We’ll answer these questions as part of our ultimate betting strategy guide, compiled by the expert team here at Betsquare. This will further explore the best betting strategies and the role elements such as bankroll management play in successful wagering.

What Is a Sports Betting Strategy?

Put simply, a sports betting strategy describes a structured and orderly approach to wagering. It incorporates elements of logic, mathematics, and implied probability to help inform your key betting decisions, from the markets you target to the amount of money you stake.

In theory, this betting strategy definition enables you to at least partially negate the unpredictable nature of sporting events and successfully account for many of the variables we referenced at the beginning of the guide. Depending on the sport, these can include form, injuries, home-field advantage and the prevailing weather conditions.

Most betting strategies are also built on the premise that the odds set by sportsbooks include a nominal house edge and commission. The so-called “vig” or “vigorish” is usually fixed at around 10% on each betting line, and strategic betting can be leveraged to account for this.

For example, let’s say that two bettors were to place $11 on both sides of an AFL clash between the Western Bulldogs and Fremantle at Docklands Stadium. This creates a total outlay of $22, and if your Fremantle wager prevails at odds of 10/11 (1.91), you’ll bank a profit of $10 and a total return of $21.

The house will subsequently bank a profit of $1 on these two bets. You can divide this by the $22 initially risked and multiply the subsequent value by 100, creating an estimated house edge of 4.54%. This will impact every single betting line published and how you identify the best value odds. 

The Benefits of Sports Betting Strategies

As we’ve already touched on, there are various benefits of betting strategies worth considering. But what are the precise advantages of implementing a sports betting strategy? Let’s find out.

• Minimise losses: Successful betting requires you to minimise losses over time, and various betting strategy components can help in this regard. For example, you can utilise different systems and techniques to regulate the value of each stake based on variables such as the odds and the implied probability of success. Betting strategies also make provision for disciplined bankroll management, reducing your exposure to the risk of unsustainable losses.

• Introduce logic and order to your betting picks: As discussed earlier in our guide, one of the main objectives when using a sports betting strategy is making more informed and logical picks. For example, a so-called “value betting” strategy encourages you to identify events where the implied probability of an outcome occurring is greater than the published odds suggest. This automatically leads to more considered betting selections, based in part on the analysis of form, real-time injury news and historical head-to-head records.

• Leverage the best value markets: A sports betting strategy may also encourage you to seek the best value markets. For example, while moneylines are popular in sports like footy, alternative and even money markets offer superior value and a higher implied probability value (such as both teams to score and the over/under on how many goals will be scored). You can also deploy strategic point spread (handicap) bets to back short-price betting favourites at enhanced odds.

Later in this guide, we will offer advice on creating your bespoke sports betting strategy. However, some existing strategies can also be used to excellent effect. These include:

Money Management Strategies

Money management betting is central to every successful wagering strategy, whether you simply want to gamble responsibly or sustain your bankroll over a particular season or tournament. 

Successful bankroll management is ultimately built on risking an amount you can comfortably afford to lose. Your bankroll should also cover a finite period, while you can divide the total amount available by the number of games or outcomes you want to wager on. This will help you to determine your initial unit bet value. 

There are also several separate money management techniques. Here’s a summary of the most effective:

Kelly Criterion

We’ll start with the Kelly Criterion model, which is synonymous with betting and financial trading. It’s a mathematical formula that exists in probability theory, and it’s commonly used to determine the optimal unit bet based on the odds and implied probability values. This formula reads as follows:

 

F = (BP – Q) / B

‘F’ is the eventual unit bet recommendation, expressed as a percentage of your bankroll. This is calculated by multiplying your chosen outcome’s odds minus 1 (B) by the implied probability of your wager being successful (P). You then subject the implied probability of your bet losing (Q) and divide the remaining value by ‘B’.

To provide some context, let’s say you wanted to back the Canberra Raiders to defeat the North Queensland Cowboys at odds of 1.80 in the NRL. In this case, the Kelly Criterion formula would read as follows:

0.01 = (0.80*0.56 – 0.44) / 0.80

If you then multiply 0.01 by 100, you’ll see that you should commit 1% of your bankroll when backing the Raiders. In instances where you have a weekly NRL bankroll of $100, you’ll subsequently stake $1 on the Raiders to beat North Queensland in the win market. You can use this methodology to calculate each stake in a way that factors in your chances of winning.

Percentage Betting

If you prefer a simpler money management strategy, percentage betting offers a viable option. As the name suggests, this will be expressed as a fixed percentage of your real-time bankroll, encouraging you to set fluctuating unit bet sizes that will be heavily impacted by historic profit and loss.

For example, let’s take your aforementioned $100 NRL bankroll and set a percentage unit bet of 10%. You may then stake $10.00 on the Raiders to beat North Queensland at odds of 1.80, with a win boosting your total bankroll to $108.00. 10% of your revised bankroll is now $10.80, your next stake’s value.

As you can see, this enables you to increase your bankroll organically with every single win. Unlike the Kelly Criterion, however, it doesn’t factor in odds or implied probability values, undermining your ability to adjust your unit bet in line with your chances of winning.

Flat Betting

This methodology is similar to percentage betting in that you’re required to establish a fixed unit bet that isn’t influenced by individual odds or implied probability values. However, in this case, your unit bet will be set as a monetary value rather than a percentage. So, you’ll stake the same amount on every bet that you place.

You may calculate your unit bet by taking your weekly NRL bankroll of $100 and initially dividing this by the number of matches you intend to bet on. You can take the remaining value and divide this further by the average number of wagers you place per game, creating a nominal unit bet that can be applied consistently.

While this lends itself to simple and efficient bankroll management (and will potentially minimise losses), it also prevents you from identifying enhanced value in published odds and increasing your stake accordingly. 

Value Betting

The latter point is interesting, as it would prohibit you from engaging in so-called “value betting”. This strategy encourages you to identify instances where the betting odds of an event happening are greater than those offered by sportsbooks. Like the Kelly Criterion, there’s also a formula that represents this:

 

Value = (Probability * Odds) – 1

 

As a generic example, let’s say that North Queensland were priced at 2.50 to defeat the Canberra Raiders in the NRL. This implies a 40% probability of NQ prevailing. However, if your match analysis and comparison of odds across multiple sportsbooks reveals that they actually have a 60% chance of winning, the formula would present as follows:

 

Value = (0.60 * 2.5) – 1

 

Any number produced above zero is indicative of a value bet. In this case, the formula generates a value of 0.5, so there’s merit in backing North Queensland to win here (potentially with an increased stake, too). 

The challenge here lies in finding value bets. The key is to analyse relevant datasets, such as recent home and away form, historic head-to-head records and real-time injury news. You should also compare odds across a broad selection of sportsbooks to determine an average price so that you have a finite way of appraising pricing.

Hedging Bets

‘Hedging’ bets is an example of an advanced wagering strategy. In simple terms, it refers to covering as many potential match outcomes as possible in instances where you’re betting on close and even contests. The key here is to hedge bets while attempting to minimise your net loss or (in the best cases) secure a guaranteed betting profit.

So-called “matched betting” offers the best iteration of hedging. This involves ‘laying’ a back bet on a particular team to win, covering all potential outcomes, including the draw. You can lay your back bet at a designated betting exchange at the same odds while deploying one or more free bets, guaranteeing a nominal profit.

Whether your goal is minimising betting losses or securing a profit, hedging can be effective when used strategically. It also works when wagering on evenly matched and difficult-to-call encounters, but you should note that you’re awarding the bookmaker a far greater margin whenever you hedge.

Betting Strategies for Different Sports

Of course, your choice of betting strategies and their application may vary from one sport to another. Here’s an insight into the best strategies and techniques for individual disciplines.

Rugby Betting Strategies

When betting on rugby and competitions such as the NRL, winning market betting is highly recommended. This is because the draw occurs just 4% of the time on average across both rugby codes, so you can realise marginally superior value when backing one side to beat another.

The weather conditions also play a key role in influencing rugby matches. Wet conditions make ball handling difficult and encourage a more tactical kicking game, whereas dryer surroundings often suit superior teams with fleet-of-foot backs. Tapping into the prevailing conditions can unlock potentially rewarding handicap and over/under markets.

Aussie Rules Football Betting Strategies

Aussie Rules has a great deal in common with rugby in that ties are statistically unlikely. However, Aussie Rules and tournaments such as the AFL allow teams to play forward and see between 150 and 200 points scored per game on average, so over/under betting lines are particularly popular here.

The Kelly-Criterion is a recommended Aussie Rules betting strategy due to the sport’s relative complexity and points-scoring system. The AFL’s competitive nature also encourages outright wagering when betting on Aussie Rules. There were five separate Grand Final winners between 2006 and 2012 alone in this competition.

Football Betting Strategies

Hedging and matched betting are widely deployed strategies when betting on football (or footy). This has much to do with the evenly matched nature of many football games, especially in elite competitions such as the English Premier League.

It is important to invest in home-field advantage when acting on football betting tips and odds. This is especially prevalent in the sport, particularly in the NFL, where 69.1% of games are won by the home side. Leveraging even money markets such as both teams to score is also one of the best football betting strategies, as it lets you create value in tight matches.

Horse Racing Betting Strategies

Form analysis is central when betting on horses. Most importantly, you’ll need to check how a particular horse performs over specific distances, while also paying attention to their historic performances in various types of going. Also, you should note that certain jockeys and trainers perform particularly well at specific tracks.

While horse racing betting tips often reference each-way wagers, the so-called “80-20” strategy may offer superior value. This sees you place 80% of your set aside bankroll on a horse to place and 20% on another to win. This immediately optimises your coverage of the field and increases your chances of banking a return.

Cricket Betting Strategies

Cricket betting strategies require you first to understand the diverse selection of markets available to bettors. Some of these are unique to cricket, so it’s important that you identify the best betting lines in different circumstances.

Like rugby, pitch and weather conditions greatly impact how particular games unfold. For example, green and damp pitches will likely produce more swing and lateral movement, favouring bowlers and reducing the total number of runs scored. Just avoid the win market when betting on cricket, as draws and tied games are commonplace.

Golf Betting Strategies

From a betting perspective, golf is also a unique sport, although course layouts and the prevailing conditions are also influential. Adverse weather conditions and high winds can suit more skilled and rounded players, which is a key consideration when betting on golf.

Some courses also suit power players and big drivers, impacting your outright and matchplay bets at certain tournaments. Golf betting tips also let you identify potential outright winners early, while the usually large number of competitors in the field enables you to access higher value odds.

Betting Strategies vs. Betting Systems

The terms “betting strategy” and “betting system” are often used interchangeably in the world of sports. However, while these terms are inherently linked, they describe two distinct and very different concepts.

Generally, a betting strategy describes a broad and overarching approach to sports wagering. This will impact every aspect of your sports betting experience, from setting an initial unit bet and minimising losses to maximising your potential returns in line with implied probability values.

Within your comprehensive sports betting strategy, there will exist several different rules and methods that inform your selections. These individual principles can be described as ‘betting systems’, and examples such as matched betting can be included. So, in comparing betting strategies vs. betting systems, it’s clear that these concepts can be effectively combined in several different ways.

Developing Your Own Sports Betting Strategy

Undoubtedly, sports betting systems can be incorporated into an overarching strategy. So, it stands to reason that you can also develop a personalised betting strategy featuring a variable range of systems. But how would you go about achieving this?

 

• Identify your preferred sports and betting markets: One way to achieve a strategic advantage in sports betting is to target disciplines that you’re familiar with. Once you’ve picked a sport you’re particularly knowledgeable about, appraise the full range of available betting markets while prioritising those that allow you to create value. Typically, these include handicapping, over/under wagers and props.

• Understand the impact of line movement: Betting lines are inherently dynamic and liable to change based on betting volumes and the amounts wagered on each outcome. Sportsbooks shift odds to minimise loss, but as prices move, they may begin to offer more or less value. Value betting lets you make sense of line movement and identify the best odds even as prices shift.

• Perfect the art of betting research: Developing betting strategies always relies on some kind of form and data analysis. The key is to engage in relevant and informed betting research. For example, you should distinguish between home and away form in team sports while analysing historic race and track trends when wagering on horse racing. As you perfect the art of betting research, you can make increasingly informed selections.

Common Mistakes to Avoid in Sports Betting

At the other end of the spectrum, common sports betting mistakes can undermine the best-laid strategies. Here are some common betting pitfalls and how to avoid them!

 

• Chasing losses: Loss is an inevitable risk of sports betting, which is why you cultivate a strategy aimed at minimising exposure and optimising your bankroll. It’s crucial that you resist the temptation to chase sports betting losses, as this is likely to exhaust your bankroll without ever overcoming the variables that impact sporting outcomes.

• Emotive betting: Chasing losses is an example of emotive betting, which is characterised by poor judgement and a failure to identify value. Emotive betting also occurs when you back your favourite team or player. We’d recommend avoiding this in the pursuit of profit unless your decision is backed by data and performance analysis.

• Not comparing a selection of odds: One of the main betting mistakes to avoid is not comparing a broad selection of odds before wagering. This is a key component of value betting, as you look to measure an outcome’s average price against an accurate implied probability value. Failing to compare odds may diminish your returns incrementally over time.

Wrapping Up on Sports Betting Strategies

So, there you have it: our comprehensive sports betting strategy guide. As you can see, there are plenty of existing strategies for you to consider. Several components underpin these strategies and may be combined to create an optimal approach.

Whether you follow a tried-and-tested strategy like value betting or create a personalised methodology, our betting strategy summary will help you achieve optimal results over time.